Prediction: Alabama beats LSU with long drives, exploiting the middle

Preview LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide

By Tony Carter

Best game ever, perhaps. Most hyped game ever; a resounding YES.

The # 1 ranked LSU Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend to face the #2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama leads the all-time series 45–24–5. LSU won last year’s meeting at a score of 24-21.
Both of these teams are mirror images of each other. Both incredibly deep on both sides of the ball, both want to run the ball, both looking to dominate you every single play…and both have done so every game thus far.

UA has won by an average of nearly 33 points per game while LSU has won by an average of 4 touchdowns per contest. Alabama is the nation’s leading total defense; LSU is FBS’s #3 ranked total defensive unit. UA has SEC’s number one scoring offense, LSU has the number two. Both of these statistics are the recipe for a championship.

So now what…

Scouting the Strategies:
Expect LSU to put Alabama QB AJ McCarron under pressure with different blitz packages baiting him to make a mistake. LSU believes that they can beat Alabama’s offensive tackles off the edges. LSU has an impressive +15 turnover margin.The team that’s won the turnover battle in this series has won the last six games.

LSU wants to establish some sort of consistent running game to set up the play action pass to the wide receivers, especially Reuben Randle. LSU has the 99th ranked passing offense in the nation so running the ball will even be more important in this game.

Watch for UA to call many between-the-tackles running plays against undersized LSU linebackers, which UA believes are suspect to downhill running. LSU will likely be forced to sneak a safety up in run support which should leave the middle occasionally susceptible to Alabama TE’s and WR’s.

LSU has given up 10+ plays on 14% of opponent’s drives against them this year. Conversely, UA has notched nearly 25% of 10+ play drives.

If UA turns the ball over multiple times and loses the field position battle; LSU is in good shape. If LSU is unable to maintain a functional running game and minimize long drives by the Tide, UA is in good shape.

Prediction: Alabama 23 LSU 17
For a different take on the game, see this prediction.

14 Comments

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  1. 1
    almightytmc1

    Thats a good line for this game. I went with bama by 10.
    One of my concerns? Is the Offensive line healthy. If so, This game will be ours to lose.

  2. 2
    pete4tide

    I’m going to go on record as predicting a blowout by Bama – 42 to LSU’s 13. I just don’t see LSU stopping our run game consistently without pulling up a safety, and Bama has proven over the past 8 games that they will exploit that move every chance they get with the passing game. I think the OL is much better than they are given credit for, except we are now a little less deep with experience than we were with C. and A.K. LSU has a lot of talk going on, and it reminds me a little of the dominant Miami team in the 92 Sugar Bowl that Bama put a monumental beatdown on in front of the whole nation. I may be wrong about all this, but, by golly, I’ll go down swinging a big bat instead of putting the Tide on the high end of a squeaker. I just think they are the better team.

  3. 3
    Indiana Vol

    GEAUX TIGERS!

    BURY THE CRIMSON TURD!

    I can’t wait to see the excuses put forth by the Bammer Morons after the LSU loss!

    • 4
      pete4tide

      Idiot Vol – Excuses are for the wearers of orange in the SEC – there will be no excuses from Bama or LSU after this game. All the effort will be left on the field by these two high-level teams. Your excuse is your sorry team. Take to Kiffin – he’s the only excuse you need.

  4. 5
    Crimsonite

    Quick, anybody know how to Tweet Richardson or get him a message somehow? In yesterdays USAToday LSWho had two defensive players quoted talking about Richardson. Defensive tackle Barkevious Mingo said: “We’ll have to pursue and tackle him in groups. You’re not going to bring him down with one tackler”. Nice quote. But the other one was just plain stupid. Linebacker Ryan Baker said: “Oh yeah, I can tackle him. I can tackle anybody in the country. Don’t need any help”.Ok guys, this is real locker room material. Richardson needs to see it so he can go and properly introduce himself to Mr. Baker and then help his ass up off the ground. Bwaa haww haww! RTR!

  5. 7
    Crimsonite

    Hah, the trolls are running scared! This website is deader than Ichabod Crane! Only the Vile is still trolling. But then he’s so phucking retarded he hasn’t got a damn clue! RTR!

    • 8
      The Flash

      Haven’t heard much from you Crimsonite since the Tide lost. Looks like you’re the one running scared you phucking retard. Who predicted bama would win 31-6? The original and only phucking retard – Crimsonite that’s who!

  6. 10
    Hate Smurf Coach

    Prediction Bama by 10?
    Reality LOSS, no NC. Hehehehehehehe. Makes my day. Now you can hear a pen drop in here now.

    • 11
      pete4tide

      Hate Smurf Coach – GFY – Bama beat LSWho all over the field with running and passing. More yards with both. Special teams, bad coaching decisions, and a blown call by the refs cost them this game. I give LSU the credit for having the special teams portion of the game locked down – at least they have confidence in their punter and kicker. Bama fans cringe everytime they kick off or have to punt or make an important field goal that is over 30 yards. Maybe it’s youth on Special Teams. Maybe it’s coaching. I sure hope that by this time next year we have some personnel that can get the job done when it’s needed.

      And the Puss Badger better watch his back for several weeks. Bama has friends in BR, too. What a useless showboat this POS is – if Miles had a hair on him, he’d have taken him out of the game after that cheap ass play on Kirkpatrick. I really want to believe that one was on his own, but I get a sick feeling he was “coached” to make that play. I don’t trust the grass-eating hat as far as I could fling him on a cold day.

  7. 12
    pete4tide

    So Maze is reporting the punt hit an overhead wire. Wouldn’t that necessitate a do-over? SEC officials REALLY need to do a once-through of the rules book before the end of the season.

  8. 13
    HateSmurfCoach

    What other excuses Pete4Tide? There was an earthquake in Oklahoma. You were outplayed. Your defense is probably better at the linebacker level than LSU, but LSU has definitely got a better secondary. When somebody actually got to McCarebear he actually threw an interception. I sure am gonna hate it for Bama next year when your senior Oline is gone.

    BLOWTIDE. No NC, Booohooo.

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