Ever been to Las Vegas? I remember my first impressions.
Yes, there’s the usual riff-raff you see in a city that size, attracting people of all shapes, sizes and moral fibers.
But I remember remarking about how immaculate it was. Block after block, building after building, no expense was spared in making it jaw dropping and utterly hard to describe.
How do they do it? How do they build state-of-the-art mini-cities under each roof?
Easy. By being right far more than they aren’t.
When you bet in your establishment of choice in Vegas, you are stepping into a realm that the house controls. Vegas was built by tons of people like you losing. But when it comes to odds-making, that wing of the great city was built on odds makers being right substantially more than they are wrong.
When a line is set, or when odds are put on an event happening in the future, more speculation is put into that decision (sadly) than our Federal Government puts into anything it does.
So, as we walk into a well-needed off week after making mincemeat of the Vols, it’s a good time to assess the season to this point. At Alabama, championships are always the objective…not moral victories or current rankings. So sitting at 7-1, and with four more games remaining on the schedule, where does Vegas place our odds of repeating as the BCS National Champs?
Better than anyone playing the game.
As of today, after the weekend’s action, Las Vegas puts Alabama’s odds at winning the BCS National Championship at 7-2. Didn’t the loss to USCe hurt us? Well, let this answer your question for you: our odds before the season were 9-2.
In order, here are the current odds:
7-2: Bama (currently: 7)
4-1: Oregon (currently: 2)
5-1: Boise State (currently: 3)
6-1: Ohio State (currently: 10)
6-1: Oklahoma (currently: 9)
8-1: TCU (currently: 4)
12-1: Nebraska (currently: 14)
15-1: Auburn (currently: 1)
20-1: LSU (currently: 12)
30-1: Michigan State (currently: 5)
Also, Missouri: 50-1 (currently 6th); Utah: 75-1 (currently: 8th)
So what do odds makers see that the casual fan…or more accurately, more than even the most ardent college football observer…doesn’t?
Vegas sees the big picture, beyond final scores. It sees the road traveled vs. the road ahead. It takes the opinions of the masses, willing to put their money where their mouths are, literally, and factors in every other factor you can imagine in putting a signature beside a prediction.
I’m certainly no Vegas odds maker, but I have to admit, at this point in the season, I have to agree with them. A one loss SEC Champion Alabama goes to Glendale, period. And looking around the SEC, there isn’t another team on the schedule or in Atlanta that can beat the Tide for 60 minutes.
With six weeks left in this college football season, there are plenty of highs and lows ahead. It’s just that the lows, according to Vegas, won’t come in Tuscaloosa.
(Follow me on Twitter for capstonereport.com news, commentary and smack: ITK4BAMA)