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Numbers heavily favor the Tide in Saturday’s Iron Bowl, but don’t let that stop Auburn delusion

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Auburn's balloon will soon pop

by ITK

Numbers always tell the tale in the game of football. The very game itself is made up of numbers, from stats to the final score.

Following another shut out of an opponent this past Saturday, the Tide’s third of the season, Bama “offically” turns its focus to Auburn this week. And oh what a week it will be.

Don’t let the rankings fool you. If you like fool’s gold, climb aboard the Gus Bus. It’s chocked full of it in every seat. The Tigers are ranked #4 because perenial pretenders Baylor and Oregan did what Baylor and Oregon do down the stretch every season.

The Tigers are 10-1 in part because Mark Richt is soft and doesn’t cover details like “batting vs. swatting” a last gasp, desperation passes late in a game, and because Johnny Manziel happened to be hurt going into his game with the Tigers back on October 19.

The Aubie Koolaid is flowing, and their mouths are running. But take a break from the delusion for for just a second and look closer. Numbers don’t lie, and neither will the scoreboard Saturday night in Bryant-Denny East.

Auburn fans love to brag that their Tigers lead the SEC in rushing, and rank 2nd nationally in that category. Well, here are those national categories:

1. Army
2. Auburn
3. Navy
4. Georgia Tech
5. Ohio State

Notice anything there? Watched an Army, Navy or Georgia Tech game lately? Seen them attempt a forward pass? Teams tend to rank high in one category when that’s all they can do. Auburn has a prolific running game because their quarterback can’t throw a football in the Gulf of Mexico three times in a row. There’s a reason why Auburn ranks 104th overall in passing offense. But wait, we’re just getting started.

In an 11-game slate, the highest ranked defense Auburn has faced and beaten is Mississippi State’s unit, coming in at #41. At 42 in total defense, and 78th in scoring defense, there’s a reason why Georgia defenders didn’t know what to do late in a game.

Saturday Auburn will face the #3 total defense in the land, who ranks #1 in scoring defense, and tied for 2nd in red zone defense, and ranks 4th in rushing defense. The Crimson Tide has allowed just six touchdowns all year to teams not named Texas A&M.

In contrast, Auburn has failed to shut out anybody. Not Florida Atlantic. Not Arkansas State. Western Carolina. While Bama owns three, including two against SEC opponents (Arkansas and Ole Miss…both of whom Auburn had to outscore).

It’s easy to get caught up in the hype and hooplah of the Iron Bowl. Orange and blue candy cane wishes of our rival’s fans dance in their heads as they envision miracles like the one they saw against Georgia. But if that was a miracle, a win over Alabama this Saturday will be a mathmatical irregularity.

What about when Bama has the ball?
Well, let’s look at who the the Tide has beaten. In contrast to Auburn’s dipsy-doo, trickeroo offense, a unit that is the equivalent of a bar room sucker punch, Alabama has lined up and punched some good defenses in the mouth.

Who has Bama beaten? How about Virginia Tech, who we told you at the beginning of the season could be the best unit Bama would face. The Hokies rank 4th nationally. Then there is LSU, ranked 23rd…which Bama racked up 38 points against. The same team that whipped Auburn…despite a couple of late cosmetic scores, the Tigers were never really in that game.

And if the Tide needs to flip the field, how does #1 in the country in net punting set with you?

Auburn delusion: “But the crowd noise! The pressure! The Iron Bowl!” This week I actually had an Auburn friend tell me the crowd was going hurt Bama. These are all things the King of College Football, Nick Saban, calls clutter, and his players do too. This isn’t Bill Curry leading Bama into a hornets’ nest in 1989. It’s Nick Freaking Saban, with an 18-wheeler tanker truck full of Crimson insecticide.

Is there a program in America that has stared down and conquered more pressure-packed games of the century in the last five years than Alabama? That’s a rhetorical question; we both know the answer. All while many of these same Auburn players are just learning how to win, victims of blowouts all season long last year.

Simply put, Bama will make Auburn one-dimensional on offense, making little Cam beat them with his arm, limiting or even taking away the run. Then on offense, the Tide will expose an aggressive but spotty Auburn defense, taking what they give them, and a little bit more. Eleven games worth of numbers don’t lie, and neither will the outcome Saturday. Unless Alabama does much to help the Tigers, reservations in Atlanta for the next weekend are pretty safe.

UPDATED – 3:30pm
Just for giggles, here are the stats between the six common opponents between us and the barn:

Bama Offense
Rushing O: 239 yards per game, 6.3 yards per carry
Passing O: 223 yards per game, 8.1 yards per pass
Total O: 462 yards per game, 7.1 yards per play
Scoring O: 38.2 points per game

Barn Offense
Rushing O: 278.5 yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry
Passing O: 177 yards per game, 8.5 yards per pass
Total O: 456 yards per game, 6.5 yards per play
Scoring O: 34.3 points per game

Bama Defense
Rushing Defense: 99.7 yards per game, 3.2 yards per carry
Passing Defense: 213.7 yards per game, 7.3 yards per pass
Total Defense: 313.3 yards per game, 5.2 yards per play
Scoring Defense: 12.7 points per game

Barn Defense
Rushing Defense: 189.2 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry
Passing Defense: 252.5 yards per game, 7.8 yards per pass
Total Defense: 441.7 yards per game, 5.9 yards per play
Scoring Defense: 26.7 points per game

Summary, Alabama is going to have to help Auburn greatly for the barn to win. But more likely, this can become a woodshed beating.

Come Saturday come….come Saturday come…come Saturday come….

Just five more days, barners…

(Follow ITK on Twitter for Bama news, commentary and smack.)

29 thoughts on “Numbers heavily favor the Tide in Saturday’s Iron Bowl, but don’t let that stop Auburn delusion”

  1. Here are a few more numbers that I am sure you did not mean to leave out…

    When Auburn / NM does decide to pass , the results are pretty similar to Alabama. Auburn avgs 8.27 per pass attempt while bama is slightly ahead at 8.66. Not sure that 1/2 of a yard will mean the difference in the IB , but lets look a little closer.

    Auburn has 5 WR that avg over 15 yards per catch. Alabama has 1 . Auburn has 3 WR with TD catches over 70 yards. Bama has 0. So the big pass play edge goes to Auburn.

    NM has lead Auburn on 2 game winning drives this season and won a few close games as well. AJ has the A&M game and that is it on the year. If the game is close , Auburn has shown it can handle the pressure. Edge Auburn

    AJ avgs 218 passing yards a game. NM avgs 153 passing yards a game. 65 Yard avg to AJ , but will 65 yds be enough to win the game? Especially when you look at Total yards per game. NM avgs 235 total yds per game. AJ avgs 218 Total yds per game. Slight edge…Auburn

    Run Support. Auburn has 4 players that are over the 500 yard mark on the season. bama has 2. Auburn has 9 players that avg over over 5 yards per carry. bama has 5 players. Also throw in 12 more rushing TDs for Auburn…HUGE ADVANTAGE Auburn

    Now to the defense. bama should have a HUGE advantage here right? Maybe so , but depends on what numbers you are looking at. Lts look closer at this just to check.

    bama has ZERO players in the top 10 in sacks and tackles for loss in the sec. Auburn has Dee Ford , and he has missed games early in the season due to injury.

    bama only has 1 player in the top 40 (2 in the top 50) in total tackles. Auburn has 2 in the top 40( 3 in the top 50).

    Auburn’s Defense avgs 1.6 turnovers per game. bama avgs 1.5.

    Now as far as ITK’s claim of the numbers being heavily in bama’s favor. Some are , but there are quite a few that are in Auburn’s favor. Besides, Auburn was the under dog all year according to the early vegas spreads. Auburn was only favored in 1 game ( Wash. State + 11). Auburn won 10 games. bama wa favored in every game that vegas put lines out on in the preseason. bama failed to cover in 2 of those.

    1. Wow. That’s one way to look at it. Alabama didn’t cover the spread twice, so Auburn has a chance.

      Auburn is ranked too high at #4 and I don’t say that as an insult but rather as a side effect of better teams losing. Beating Auburn is almost an unfair advantage to the polls for Alabama since Auburn is ranked so high and better teams like Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Stanford have all had losses that Auburn has, for what it’s worth, barely managed not to do more than once.

      But Auburn’s significant advantage is the hurry-up-no-huddle magic show. It’s designed to catch football teams with better talent off-guard, so that one 70-yard explosive pass play all of a sudden comes up as a stat against the best team in the country against exactly those kinds of plays?

      That’s not to say Auburn doesn’t have talent. They do. But the fundamental talent doesn’t correlate with the scores. Let’s put it this way; take away the hurry-up-no-huddle and line up like a normal football team, then what does Auburn have? Do they get all of the one-posession wins over Mississipi State, TAMU, Washington State, Georgia, etc?

      The hurry-up-no-huddle is successful for Malzahn and I can’t blame Auburn for using it. That doesn’t mean we have to like it or pretend it’s not a direct result in several victories.

      It also doesn’t mean Alabama can’t stop it.

      And just stick with a name, please. The spelling and grammar issues give you away. You’re not my master; you’re my little brother. Roll Tide.

    2. yeah, AJ has no experience with 4th quarter drives to win, (see Baton Rouge last year) and obviously having to fight it out in the fourth quarter to win is much better than doing it the Alabama way by shutting the game down early and cruising to victory, I get it, Auburn fans aren’t used to what Bama fans have become accustomed to. Nonetheless here is a stat for you that will answer any doubts as to Saturday’s outcome. Alabama is 62-0 (again 62 WINS and ZERO losses) when rushing for 150+ yards. Auburns D averages giving up 153YDS per game this season, when that happens Saturday Auburn loses.

    1. There’s nothing objective about this game. If I say ya’ll have the chance you believe you do I’m simply lying to you. You get that enough from the Alabama media.

      Instead, I give you the truth. Which you don’t want. In that regard, I’d have something else to do from about 3:15pm on this Saturday. Reality is tough to cope with when it hits you in the face.

  2. No one thinks auburn has a chance. No better way to enter this iron bowl IMO. Auburn knows they have to play the best game of their year. Not going to be easy. But I would rather us be the under dog than people saying we are going to upset u guys. Like I said its going to be extremely hard for auburn to win this game. But it’s not impossible.

  3. I must appologize to conduit. I thought this was a football blog, not a on line English course. Is this or a University of Phoenix on line class room? You are the worse kind of one trick pony there is. The only thing that you can truly critique is writing errors / grammar? Then the ULTIMATE Oxymoron is you are doing it on a Alabama Football website. Unfucking believable! Now lets look at what little football talk you hvae done , and tear that apart as well. ” Lets take away the HUNH”……Yeah , I am sure you would love to do that. Why is there always an excuse from you turds? Right now WishIKnew is thinking of how he could spin his post game garbage post if Auburn wins. As much as you gumps hate to admit it , bama is beatable. The 2 teams that came the closest to beating bama this year was teams that ran some type of hurry up offense. 2 of bama’s last 3 loses came against teams that ran some type of hurry up offense. So hell yeah you would love to take away the HUNH! Here is a question to you and WishIknew. What in Auburn’s offense do you consider a ” trick play”? Where is this ” dipsy do” element you speak of? Is it the smash mouth running game? Is it the play action off of the running game? If memory serves me correctly, bama has resorted to flea flickers , quick WR Screens , and even some HUNH during the last few seasons. How many of you gumps would call what the bear did with the wishbone “trickery” or ” dipsy do” ?
    This has been the best IB week I can remember. The fear coming from gump nation is hilarious! The stress level is at a all time high! While Auburn and it’s fans are playing with house money. Win or lose Auburn will come out smelling like roses , and the recruits are taking notice! WMFE!!!!

    1. And you left out the fake punt against LSU, which was the key play in that game. Nothing wrong with that, but when you complain when we do it, complain when you do it. Think a team should use whatever they can, as long as it within the rules to do so. It will be a great game, and look forward to coming on here next week, to see how you handle losing. I know it won’t be pretty, but will be a joy to see the Bama meltdown. Will congratulate you if you win, but will not get the same when Auburn does. All have a good Thanksgiving, and safe travels if that applies.

      1. Yes, Alabama’s fake punt on LSU was a trick play. And no, that’s not the same as HUNH.

        Let’s be clear. I’m complaining about Auburn running the HUNH, not running trick plays. They are inherently different. I’m not even sure if I’ve seen Auburn run a trick play this season, for what it’s worth. Trick plays don’t result in the live video feed missing the snap, for example.

    2. You don’t have to apologize for your spelling and grammar issues. All I asked is to stop changing your name. I don’t get why anybody does that. Is it the art of trolling or something?

    3. I love how you call critiques “excuses.”

      You won’t have any of those Sunday morning. I’m going to miss you afterwards, though.

      No, Alabama doesn’t run HUNH. We don’t have Pokemon-gingerbread-apple-Subaru placards on the Alabama sidelines. Not huddling on every single down is one thing, but having to watch the game in a tiny window on my TV is the result of HUNH. It sucks. Often even the live feed doesn’t broadcast the snap because of the speed; not the talent or play-calling or “smash-mouth running game.” It’s explicit purpose is to confuse and distract. Look at the rabbit over here…while I’m stealing your watch, all in 1.25 seconds.

      But again, without the HUNH, do you think the scores would be the same? It defines Auburn’s success rather than being a side effect. I understand it, but comparing the 1975 wishbone and the triple-option to HUNH is like comparing French and German to sign language.

      I also never said Alabama is unbeatable, Little Brother. But Auburn isn’t beating Alabama, so now I’ve said that.

      The stress level is at an all-time high?

      You realize we’re used to this, right? Every game is huge for Alabama. For Auburn, all the players are used to the stands being empty, no noise, now all of a sudden there’s a big game? I know the game is in Auburn and it will be a sell-out crowd (the second sell-out in three years), but I kinda see that as an Alabama mental advantage, actually.

      “What in Auburn’s offense do you consider a ” trick play”? Where is this ”dipsy do” element you speak of?”
      I never said either of those things, Little Brother. Trick plays are not the same as HUNH, and I don’t know what you mean by “dipsy do.”

      You are the littlest Little Brother ever. I’m proud of how you represent Auburn.

  4. The trick plat reference was in response to the comments made by ITK in the blog above you dipshit. Do you even read ITK’s crap? This is getting sad. Lets once again pick out what you missed and /or lied about in this post.

    Maybe if you cal CGM and ask him nicely , he will slow his offense down.

    I am not going anywhere Sunday. I will be right here pissing you off. As I said a few times now. This game is just the cherry on top of a great season. Playing with house money is AWESOME!

    1. The playing with house money line is what’s awesome.

      Friend, you may never be this close again. In fact, I’ll predict right now you won’t.

      Terry Bowden looked fabulous for a season. So did Frank Chiznik.

      Where you sit at this moment is the closest you’ll ever get to
      this kind of significance under Gussy.

      ENJOY IT. The ride’s over in four days.

      1. The ride is just starting. We return almost the entire team. We will be top 10 to start, and we will be one of the top 4 next year. Get used to it because we are not going away. And that is what scares y’all. If we are good, that is trouble for you. Facts back that up, not the other way around. But Bama fans never let facts get in the way of a good story. Hope the IB is this meaningful every year, and no reason why it can’t be. Us versus you every year to go to Atlanta sounds good to me, and is good for our state.

        1. Already hope for next year. That’s nice.

          Just please stop telling us we’re scared, k? Respect is one thing, but fear just isn’t part of it.

  5. Stupid ass MasterBater ITK’s stats were relevant. Your dumbass stats mean nothing. His stats relates back to the hard facts of the actual games whereas yours are more individual and obviously had no bearing on the common games. To wit: Bama 49 – A&M 42, Aubie 45 – A&M 41; Bama 25 – Ole Miss 0, Awbie 30 – Ole Miss 22; Bama 20 – Miss St 6, Aubie 24 – Miss St 20; Bama 52 – Arky 0, Awbie 34 – Arky 17; Bama 45 – UcheaT 10, Awbie 55 – UcheaT 23; Bama 38 – LSU 17, Awbie 21 – LSU 35. Bama defense 102 points, Awbie defense 228 points. In other words dumbass – you’re fucked! RTR!

  6. It’s really funny how the Barnturd’s hide out during hard times and come out like a fucking army of roaches when they do a little something. However, unlike 2010 when the Bastards were completely insufferable, this time they seem to know the reality of what’s coming. The national blogs are nothing like 2010, and even here on CR it is vacant in comparison. One can only figure they are scared shitless. They damn well ought to be. Aj was on that 2010 team. He knows what went wrong and what is necessary. AJ says this team is hungry and that it intends to conquer history. That alone should scare shit out of anyone with aspirations of getting in the way. RTR!

    1. Austin Here I Come!

      Where you at Crimsonshite!? You can not make statements like ” It’s really funny how the Barnturd’s hide out during hard times and come out like a fucking army of roaches when they do a little something ” then run and hide when bama gets their ass handed to them.

  7. Crimsonshite… has been over now for a few hours….wheres you post ? You fucking cockroach! Hope you enjoyed watching the Auburn team that is lead by a ” High School Coach” use their ” dipsy doo ” offense to rush for almost 300 yards and the win! Hope you fucking choke on that crow you backwoods hick! War Damn Eagle!

    P.S. WishIknew/Cantdoit……fuck you too.

    1. Can we get an apology from ITK, please?

      “The Crimson Tide has allowed just six touchdowns all year to teams not named Texas A&M.” They just gave up FIVE to Auburn. Who’s deluded now, ITK?

  8. This must be so embarrassing for you. I’m new here, and I have to admit I am dying laughing and the egg on your face. They give you a column? Wow. I guess they have the bandwidth to spare since they had to shut down “Harvey’s Gardening Tips”.

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